Posts Tagged ‘Polling’

In the last month I’ve heard a number of non-Trump supporting podcasters of various stripes claim the 2020 presidential election is either a toss up or Trump will almost certainly win.

Dave Smith from Part of the Problem podcast, Brett Weinstein and Heather Heying and Bridget Phetasy are three that come to mind. I’m sure there are others, let me know in the comments. Most are from the anti-Trump IDW/redpill’d wing of the pundit class. I also run across it quiet commonly in similarly shaded reddit forums and other nooks and crannies of social media. I may not be fair to Phetasy – last I heard her was a month ago – or forever in politcs and maybe she’s changed her tune.

Again, its important to note and re-iterate most the people are fairly anti- Trump and none of the ones I’m thinking of are Trumpkin True Believers. It’s also fair to categorize these people as perhaps interesting thinkers on a number of topics but a bit past their skis when it comes to electoral analysis – this isn’t their field of expertise and they have a lot of time to fill and socks to sell on their youtube channels and podcasts. Just saying ‘the polls are probably right, Trump is toast’ don’t keep audiences coming back for more.

Hello out there!

As of this post, Trump is getting shellac’d in the polls at the national and state level – to my mind he has almost no chance of winning, we live in strange times but lets not get too carried away ok?

Their version of why Trump will probably win goes along two basic lines that converge:

Polling: The polling is off like it was in 2016 – sure the national polls show Biden/Harris with a lead and they’ll probably win the national vote but Trump will win the electoral college – the shithole battleground states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvannia and Ohio are toss ups. The polling isn’t good. Trump will surge in the last few weeks. People don’t answer their phones anymore so only the weirdos are responding to polls and the pollsters aren’t reaching the right voters. Basically these pundits don’t buy that polling firms have corrected for their mistakes in 2016.

Why is the polling off in the battleground states?

Shy Trump voters: Because of the polarization and tribalism of politics there are a lot of Trump voters that simply aren’t even telling themselves, let alone a pollster that they’ll be voting for old man Trump. They fear getting fired at work, marginalized from their family and not invited to their friends BBQ if they say MAGA. But when they go in that booth or lick that envelope they are going to vote to give Trump a second term. The biggest proof they bring up is that they are getting tons of e-mails, many of them from Democrats and liberals who have been red pilled or are so sickened and scared by BLM, the riots, Critical Race Theory in their workplace, etc. that they are doing the unthinkable and voting Republican and worse yet, voting for Trump.

I call B.S.

We’ll know very soon who is right but I will honestly say if Trump pulls off a win I will be more shocked than I was in 2016. I predict a Blue Wave as well. Democrats take the Senate and keep and expand the House. Taking the Senate is still pretty tough, if the Republicans hold on I wouldn’t be shocked but if The Donald holds onto the White House I will truly be flabbergasted.

Polling has improved since 2016 and there is more of it in the battleground states.

The equities markets are increasingly pricing in a Biden bluewave. You may or may not like these folks but they have lots of ‘skin in the game’ to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars and they have access to massive amounts of information and experts. Even Trump supporting market players like Leon Cooperman are changing their tune.

Trump barely won in 2016. He ran a great campaign, he was the outsider, there was a enormous enthusism gap between him and Hilary and he just had the momentum. And yet he won by the skin of his teeth – a few hundred thousand votes. This time around Biden is running a much better campaign, he is viewed more favorably and this time Trump is the incumbent and there is a real feeling that he’s really screwed up the response to Covid.

The results in 2016 and 2020 will be quiet simple to explain – in 2016 Trump ran a very smart, disciplined campaign, was the outsider which matched the public mood at the time was ran against a very disliked and incompetent opponent. The reason he’ll lose in 2020 is he blew the response to Covid.

No reason to delve into conspiracy theories or blame social media – Trump is seen by many people, including many of his own base from 2016 as having made a hash of the federal response to the pandemic and it will cost him re-election. Period.

I have no doubt that there are shy Trump voters out there and that many people have been red pilled that were former Democrats or liberals. But 150 million or so people are going to vote this year – you would need millions of these shy/ newly red pilled voters to turn out and to turn out in the right states. If you changed your political stripes this year and you live in a North Korea style one party state like California, who cares – 1 million California voters could swallow bottles of red pills and show up at the polls and with red faces and mischevious grins pull the switch for Trump and it would change exactly nothing.

There are two very outside and at this point almost non-plausible scenarios Trump pulls off a win.

If mass social unrest breaks out in a major way in the next 10 days in cities across the US on par with what we saw this summer which causes 8-10% of those who haven’t yet voted to change their intentions.

If the vote is close in enough battleground states and Trump’s army of lawyers wins key decisions to throw the electoral college up in the air. This is more plausible but also unlikely to chnage the results. And if it did, the civil unrest described above would almost certainly happen.

No. I expect lots of dumb tweets and statements from Trump on his way out. The media will make it closer than it looks and will run scare stories about the courts for weeks after the election that maybe just maybe Trump will hole up in an attic in the Whitehouse but Trump will leave and a peaceful, rather boring transition will take place.

Please!